The federal government is working on a sweeping series of programs that would represent perhaps the biggest intervention in financial markets since the 1930s, embracing the need for a comprehensive approach to the financial crisis after a series of ad hoc rescues.

At the center of the potential plan is a mechanism that would take bad assets off the balance sheets of financial companies, said people familiar with the matter, a device that echoes similar moves taken in past financial crises. The size of the entity could reach hundreds of billions of dollars, one person said. U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will hold a 10 a.m. EDT press conference Friday to discuss a "comprehensive approach to market developments."

Meanwhile, the Treasury announced a massive program Friday to shore up the nation's money-market mutual-fund sector, responding to concerns that the global financial crisis is starting to affect those historically safe assets. The move is designed to stem an outflow of funds as consumers start to worry about even the safest of investments, a sign of how the crisis is spreading to Main Street. There is $3.4 trillion in money-market funds outstanding.

In addition, the Federal Reserve is expanding its liquidity programs, which should help money funds meet redemption demand. The initiative includes purchasing certain short-term debt obligations issued by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Home Loan Banks. The Fed said it will also extend so-called non-recourse loans at the primary credit rate to U.S. banks to finance their purchases of high-quality asset-backed commercial paper from money-market mutual funds.

Meanwhile, the Securities and Exchange Commission proposed a temporary ban on short-selling on 799 financial stocks. The ban, which is effective immediately, is set to last for 10 days, but could be extended for up to 30 days.

Under the Treasury program, the government will insure the holdings of any eligible publicly offered money-market fund. The funds must pay a fee to participate in the program. "The program provides support to investors in funds that participate in the program and those funds will not 'break the buck,'" Treasury said in a statement, referring to the concern that arises when the net asset value of money-market funds falls below $1 per share.

The insurance program will be financed with up to $50 billion from the Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund, which was created in 1934. President George W. Bush had to sign off on Treasury's use of the fund. "Concerns about the net asset value of money-market funds falling below $1 have exacerbated global financial market turmoil and caused severe liquidity strains in world markets," Treasury said in a statement.

The administration had been taking a patchwork approach to the financial crisis, putting out fires as they ignited. The new moves represent an effort to take a more systematic approach, after a spiral of bad debts, credit downgrades and tumbling stocks brought down venerable names from investment bank Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. to insurance giant American International Group Inc. Banks have grown unwilling to lend to one another, a sign of extreme stress, because financial markets work only when institutions have faith in each other's ability to meet their obligations.

Word of a coordinated government plan came first came Thursday, a day when the Federal Reserve and other major central banks offered hundreds of billions of dollars in loans to commercial banks to alleviate a deepening freeze in the world's credit markets. That step appeared to have moderate impact on lending among banks. Meanwhile, a wave of redemptions continued hitting money-market funds, causing a second large fund to shut to investors.

In Russia, officials suspended stock-market trading for the second-straight day as the Russian government promised to inject $20 billion to halt a collapse in share prices. In China, government officials directed purchases of bank shares and encouraged companies to buy their own shares in efforts to prop up a falling market.

Still, word of a possible U.S. plan to address the crisis sent the stock market soaring on Thursday, in one of its sharpest reversals in recent memory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended up 3.9%, the index's biggest percentage gain in nearly six years, on record New York Stock Exchange volume.

The blue-chip index finished more than 560 points above its intraday low and reclaimed about 90% of its Wednesday losses. Nasdaq composite trading also saw trading volume set a new single-day high at 3.89 billion shares. All 30 Dow component stocks closed higher, but financial companies were the biggest winners, racking up double-digit percentage gains after weeks of selling off.

Early Friday, stock futures roared higher as investors welcomed government efforts to shore up markets and clamp down on short selling. Dow futures climbed more than 300 points before the opening bell. The flurry of moves under discussion may bring the markets some breathing room, but it isn't clear whether they will amount to a long-term solution to the complex financial problems sweeping the market.

"The market wants to see a more systemic solution that doesn't leave us wondering day after day about the next institution that's the weakest link in the chain," said former Fed Board member Laurence Meyer, vice chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, an economic research firm.

Treasury Department officials have studied a structure to buy up distressed assets for weeks, but have been reluctant to ask Congress for such authority unless they were certain it could get approved. The intensified market turmoil may have changed that political calculus, even with less than two months left until the November elections.

A big question still to be answered is how the government will value the assets it takes onto its books. One possible avenue could be some sort of auction facility, so that the government would not have to be involved in negotiating asset values with companies. Financial companies would likely take big losses.

President Bush met with Treasury Secretary Paulson, Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke for 45 minutes Thursday to discuss "the serious conditions in our financial markets," said White House spokesman Tony Fratto.

Messrs. Paulson, Cox and Bernanke later addressed congressional leaders Thursday evening on their proposals. At the meeting, Mr. Bernanke began by laying out the severity of the crisis. Mr. Paulson "made the sale," said a top congressional aide. House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank, the Massachusetts Democrat, said his panel could hold a vote on the package as soon as Wednesday.

"They said they would like legislation to do it, and there was virtually unanimous agreement that there would be legislation to do it," said Mr. Frank. In a news conference after the meeting, Mr. Paulson described his effort as "an approach to deal with the systemic risk and the stresses in our capital markets." The "comprehensive" solution would deal with the souring real-estate and other illiquid assets at the heart of the financial crisis, he said.

Exactly how such an entity might be structured isn't yet clear. The possible plan isn't expected to mirror the Resolution Trust Corp., which was used from 1989 to 1995 during the savings and loan crisis to hold and sell off the assets of failed banks. Rather, a new entity might purchase assets at a steep discount from solvent financial institutions and eventually sell them back into the market.

The program may look more like the Reconstruction Finance Corporation, a Depression-era relief program formed in 1932 by President Hoover that tried to inject liquidity into the market by giving loans to banks and other businesses. According to a top congressional aide, the Treasury department wants authority to either control the program or have it be a separate division of the government.

A series of veteran policy makers, including former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers and former Fed Chief Paul Volcker, has pushed in recent weeks for such a government agency that would attempt a comprehensive solution to the markets crisis.
The idea would be to steady the market so that investors regain confidence in financial institutions and resume conducting business normally with them.

"By stepping in here and getting the markets to function again, the government could deliver the Sunday punch to this financial turmoil," said former Comptroller of the Currency Eugene Ludwig, who is now chief executive of Promontory Financial Group, and a big proponent for the idea. "By taking the first step and making a market the new government entity could take fear out of marketplace," he added.

Thursday, Republican nominee Sen. John McCain sought a broad expansion of government regulation over financial institutions, including the formation of a body to both assume distressed mortgages and help failing investment banks.
Saying the government cannot "wait until the system fails," Sen. McCain called for the creation of an entity that would essentially help companies sell off bad loans and other impaired assets.

It is unclear how the body, dubbed the Mortgage and Financial Institutions trust, would operate, including whether or not institutions would seek help or whether the government would intervene on its own behalf. His rival, Democratic Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois was less specific about what steps he would take, offering broader outlines of policy proposals that included a "Homeowner and Financial Support Act." The measure, which would inject capital and liquidity in the financial system, is designed to provide a more coordinated response than "the daily improvisations that have characterized policy-making over the last year.

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Unfortunately for the rest of us, you have a pretty good track record. How much more misery lies ahead?We are in the second inning of a severe, protracted recession, which started in the first quarter of this year and is going to last at least 18 months, through the middle of next year. A systemic banking crisis will go on for awhile, with hundreds of banks going belly up.

Which banks will fail?
I don't want to name names, but many, given the housing bust, will become insolvent. Their losses are mounting because they have written down only their subprime loans so far. They haven't started writing down most of their consumer-credit losses, and reserves for losses are much less than they should have been. The banks are playing all sorts of accounting gimmicks not to recognize them. There are hundreds of [billions] of dollars outstanding in home-equity loans that eventually could be worth zero, too.

So far, we have seen no recession in the technical sense: two consecutive quarters of negative growth in real GDP. Why not?
The definition of a recession isn't only two consecutive quarters of negative growth. The NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) puts a lot of emphasis on things like employment, and employment has already fallen for seven months in a row. It also emphasizes income and retail and wholesale sales. Many of these things are declining.

Maybe the recession started in January; if you look at the data on gross domestic product on a monthly basis between February and April, GDP was falling. Saying this is not a recession is just a joke. Maybe instead of a 'U' recession and recovery, it will be a 'W,' with a rebound in the second quarter. But by the third quarter, the effect of the government's tax rebates is totally gone, because other forces on the consumer are more persistent and negative.

Which forces, for instance?
The U.S. consumer is shopped out and saving less. Debt to disposable income has risen to 140% from 100% in 2000. Hit by falling home prices, the consumer no longer can use his house as an ATM machine. The stock market is falling and (issuance of) home-equity loans (has) collapsed. We have a credit crunch in mortgages, and gas is around $4 a gallon.

Everyone says, 'yeah, that's true, but as long as there is job generation there is going to be income generation and people are going to spend.' But for seven months in a row, employment in the private sector has fallen.The most worrisome thing is that in spite of the rebates, retail sales in June were up only 0.1%. In real terms, they were down. If people were not spending their rebate checks in June, what will happen when there are no more checks?

The Fed's performance has been poor. More than a year ago the Fed said the housing slump would end, but it hasn't. They kept repeating this was a subprime-debt problem only, whereas the problems of excessive credit involve subprime, near-prime, prime, commercial real estate, credit cards, auto loans, student loans, home-equity loans, leveraged loans, muni bonds, corporate loans -- you name it.

The Fed's other mistake was to believe the collapse of the housing market would have no effect on the rest of the economy, when housing accounted for a third of all job creation in the past few years. When the proverbial stuff started to hit the fan last summer, the Fed went into aggressive-easing mode. But it has always been kind of catching up.

What should Bernanke have done a year ago, or even prior to that?
The damage was done earlier, beginning when the Greenspan Fed lowered interest rates in 2001 after the bust of the technology bubble, and kept them too low for too long. They kept cutting the federal funds rate all the way to 1% through 2004, and then raised it gradually instead of quickly. This fed the credit and housing bubble.

Also, the Fed and other regulators took a reckless approach to regulating the financial sector. It was the laissez-faire approach of the Bush administration, and (tantamount to) self-regulation, which really means no regulation and a lack of market discipline. The banks' and brokers' risk-management models didn't make sense because no one listens to the risk managers in good times. As Chuck Prince (the deposed CEO of Citigroup) said, 'when the music plays you have to dance.'

Now the regulators are attempting to make up for lost time. What do you think of their efforts?
The paradox is they're going to the opposite pole. They are overregulating, bailing out troubled participants and intervening in every market. The Securities and Exchange Commission has accused others of trying to manipulate stocks, but the government itself is now the manipulator.

The regulators should investigate themselves for bailing out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the creditors of Bear Stearns and the financial system with new lending facilities. They have swapped U.S. Treasury bonds for toxic securities. It is privatizing the gains and profits, and socializing the losses, as usual. This is socialism for Wall Street and the rich.

So the government should have let Bear Stearns fail, not to mention Fannie and Freddie?
If you let Bear Stearns fail you can have a run on the entire banking system. But there are ways to manage Bear or Fannie and Freddie in a fairer way. If public money is to be put at stake, first all the shareholders of these companies have to be wiped out. Management has to be wiped out, and the creditors of Bear should have taken a hit. Why did the Fed buy $29 billion of the most toxic securities, and essentially bail out JPMorgan Chase, which bought Bear Stearns?

Because JPMorgan was a counter-party?
Exactly. The government bailed out everyone. Even the unsecured creditors of Fannie and Freddie should have taken a hit. Sometimes it is necessary to use public money to rescue institutions, but you do it in a way in which you're not bailing out those who made the mistakes. In each one of these episodes the government bailed out the shareholders, the bondholders and to some degree, management.

At what point does the government run out of money to lend to troubled banks?
Many public institutions are themselves going bankrupt. The FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) has only $53 billion of funds, and has already committed almost 15% of it to bail out depositors of IndyMac. The FDIC's deposit-insurance premiums weren't high enough, and now it is asking Congress to raise them. Plus, the agency claims only [ninety] institutions are on its watch list. IndyMac wasn't on the watch list until June, the month before it collapsed.

Studies done by experts in banking suggest that at least 8% of U.S. banks are in big trouble. Eight percent of the roughly 8,500 that the FDIC essentially is insuring equals about 700 banks. Another 8% to 16% also are shaky, so some 700 potentially are going bust and another 700 eventually could join them. Yet the FDIC is watching only [ninety] institutions. It's a joke.

What recourse will the taxpayer have?
The taxpayer's bill is going to be huge. I estimate this financial crisis will lead to credit losses of at least $1 trillion and most likely closer to $2 trillion. When I made this analysis in February everybody thought I was a lunatic. But a few weeks later the International Monetary Fund came out with an estimate of $945 billion, Goldman Sachs estimated $1.1 trillion and UBS $1 trillion.

Hedge-fund manager John Paulson recently estimated the losses would be $1.3 trillion, and late last month Bridgewater Associates came up with an estimate of $1.6 trillion. So, at this point $1 trillion isn't a ceiling, it's a floor. And the banks, as I've said, have written down only about $300 billion of subprime debt.

How long will it take for the collapse in the banking sector to play out?
It is happening in real time. Many smaller banks are going bust already. More than 200 subprime-mortgage lenders have gone bust in the past year alone. And many community banks will go bankrupt. Community banks usually finance everything: the homes, the stores, the downtown, the commercial real estate, the shopping center.

If you are in a town or a municipality where there is a housing bust, the bank is gone. Of three dozen or so medium-sized regional banks, a good third are in distress. That includes the Wachovias and Washington Mutuals of the world. Half of this group might go bankrupt. Even some of the majors could end up technically insolvent, though they might be deemed too big to fail.

Take Citigroup. In 1991 there was a small real-estate bust, though the quarterly fall in home prices was only 4%, based on the S P/Case-Shiller indices. Citi was effectively bankrupt and signed a memorandum of understanding with the Fed that allowed the government to give the bank regulatory forbearance.

Citi was allowed to ride it out and try to recapitalize in a few years, and thereby avoid bankruptcy protection. This time around the S P/Case-Shiller indices indicate home prices already have fallen 18%. The decline could be as much as 30%, because the excess supply is huge.

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A long wave of credit stimulation has been allowed to obscure the underlying problem of capital accumulation in the United States. We are paying a price, but not solving the problem.

The political class simply cannot be trusted to provide solutions. They are too interested in retaining power for the sake of power. They do not have the guts to say what needs to be said for fear of alienating some group of supporters. They do not have the integrity to stand on principle and advocate unpopular but necessary policies.

They are too beholden to special interest groups to do what is right for the country rather than what is right for their campaign contributors. It is high time that politicians were held responsible for the damage done by policies intended to benefit the few at the expense of the many.

In this election year, the greatest concern for most Americans is the economy and there is good reason for that. Unemployment, foreclosures and prices are all rising. The stock market, home prices and the dollar are all falling. Economic growth is still positive but well below potential. Americans are rightly worried.

In a recent market commentary, Bill Gross called credit the mother's milk of capitalism. That sentiment, echoed by our politicians and policy makers, is the source of our problems. It is not credit but capital that is the lifeblood of capitalism and the US doesn't accumulate enough capital to support the growth to which we've become accustomed.

The savings rate has ticked somewhat higher over the last few months, but for years we've saved too little and spent too much. The difference to date has been provided by foreigners such as the Chinese who now own over $1 trillion of US debt and Middle Easterners who own even more.

In their efforts to revive the credit markets, the Federal Reserve and their political enablers may have averted an economic crisis in the short term, but the long term implications have yet to be reckoned. Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, deemed too big to fail, were given access to the public purse rather than face the consequences of excessive leverage.

The cure for excessive private indebtedness has been deemed to be more public indebtedness. Private actors will reap the benefits if these transactions turn out profitable while the public will pay the price if they don't.

Large financial institutions were encouraged to take on too much leverage and take too many risks by a Federal Reserve that held interest rates at artificially low levels for far too long. Rather than allow these companies to suffer the consequences of their actions our leaders are working overtime to ensure they continue to take imprudent risks in the future.

The Fed has allowed overleveraged institutions to borrow funds at attractive rates with dubious collateral. Savers are punished with low interest rates while speculative actors are encouraged to find new avenues for their speculation. Oil prices would seem to indicate they've found a new outlet for their speculative impulses.

Likewise the individuals who borrowed too much to buy homes they couldn't afford. I feel for the people who face foreclosure but why should those of us who were prudent be forced to bail out those who weren't? The recently passed housing bill will allow both lenders and borrowers to forgo the consequences of their actions.

And again, if everything works out the lenders and borrowers will benefit while failure is assigned to the taxpayer. It would be better for the foreclosures to proceed and former homeowners to become renters again. The real estate market would face a further increase in inventory but prices could finally fall to market clearing levels. That would make housing affordable for those who have saved and acted prudently.

Over the last 50 years (at least) but especially the last 30, every economic problem has been buried under another layer of credit and government intervention. The Federal Reserve and Congress have worked together to promote an economic environment where failure is deemed a threat to the "system" and all economic ills are "solved" by reducing the cost of credit.

The result is plain for all to see. The US has moved from creditor to debtor nation. Debtors are bailed out through the tax code while savers are consigned to a prison of low interest rates. It is no surprise that we must import capital to cover our debts when we encourage debt and discourage saving.

The long term problems facing our economy will not be solved painlessly. Nor will they be solved by providing more of the same policies that got us to this point. While the Federal Reserve sits at the center of our problems the institution itself is not at fault.

They have been given an impossible dual mission to maintain economic growth and to limit inflation. Having control only over the money supply, it is beyond the capabilities of the Fed to create growth. Inflation and credit expansion do not add anything to the amount of resources available or the capital stock. The Fed cannot create universal prosperity by creating more money.

Inflation consumes precious capital by misdirecting resources into non economic investments. If you have any doubts about that, think of all the empty houses sitting around the country which attracted so much investment over the last decade. The capital devoted to housing was diverted from more productive uses and is now being destroyed as banks are forced to write off the bad loans.

The villains in this story are the inhabitants of our political institutions. They seek to buy our votes with our own money and when they find that is not enough, they turn to the Federal Reserve and the banking system to create more.

Rather than raise taxes to pay for the goodies they promise or the wars they deem necessary, they depend on debt and inflation. They do not create jobs, but destroy them. They do not create equality but exacerbate the divide between the haves and have nots and manipulate the divide to accrue more power.

They do not create capital but rather destroy it. They are not special but mere mortals susceptible to the same failings as all men. They are self interested actors acting on a stage of their own design in a play written for their own benefit.

It seems evident that the housing bubble that is the source of the current economic malaise was caused by Federal Reserve policy. Does it not seem perverse to turn to the same institution for a remedy? How can they be expected to prescribe a remedy when they obviously don't understand the malady?

It would seem more logical to proscribe the manipulation of interest rates for any purpose other than to achieve price stability. While a gold standard or some other real asset backed currency would be preferable and less susceptible to political manipulation, setting a single goal for the Fed is preferable to the current situation.

Higher interest rates are obviously needed to reduce the inflation evident to everyone except the government statisticians. Higher interest rates would also encourage saving and discourage further debt accumulation.

It also seems evident that the government budget deficit is a result of excessive spending rather than a lack of taxation. Tax revenue has been remarkably stable as a percentage of GDP for many years, ranging between 18% and 21% regardless of tax rates. Right now it stands at 19%.

Furthermore, other countries, such as Hong Kong, are able to collect nearly the exact same percentage of revenue with much lower tax rates. Hong Kong has income tax rates, personal and corporate, of less than 20% and generates a budget surplus while spending over 15% of GDP on government services.

Hong Kong also doesn't tax capital gains or dividends. We do not need higher taxes to generate the revenue needed for essential government services. We do need to decide what is essential.In particular, it is illogical to raise taxes on capital when the basic problem we face is a lack of capital. If anything, taxes on capital should be further reduced to encourage accumulation of the capital needed to fund our growth.

As for income taxes, it is time for Americans to assess the wisdom of taxing the very thing we wish to generate. If it is logical to tax cigarettes to discourage smoking, what is the logic for taxing income? A consumption tax coupled with repeal of the income tax would realign incentives toward a more rational economy based on thrift and savings rather than conspicuous consumption.

Because we keep re-electing the same politicians, we have no one to blame but ourselves. It is time to get angry.

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Not since Trivial Pursuit became an instant hit in the early 1980s has a parlour game so dominated the leisure hours of Britain's chattering classes. I'm referring, of course, to Where Did It All Go Wrong?, the pastime of choice for many who regarded Gordon Brown's expropriation of Number 10 as the precursor to a new phase of Labour hegemony.

One year on, with the Prime Minister's authority in ruins, pollsters and psephologists are picking through the rubble to find out WDIAGW? They are joined by academics, party activists and pundits of every persuasion. The blogosphere is filled with theories of bewildered supporters. Channel 4 commissioned an entire documentary in search of an answer. What a hoot! How long before WDIAGW? is adapted by Endemol as a celebrity quiz show?

Much conjecture centres on Mr Brown's personal and physical shortcomings. The Great Awkward is unable to take off when in danger. As was Pinguinus impennis, he is vulnerable to human hunters, especially those in the press and on opposition benches. Vicious types, such as Vince Cable, club him over the head with spiky humour, causing him to haemorrhage credibility.

"The trouble is, the electorate doesn't know the real Gordon," squawks the diminishing band of Brown loyalists. "He is not properly understood." One columnist suggested a more prominent role for Mrs Brown, largely on the basis that she's not Cherie Blair. Others call for fresh ideas and vision.

All of this misses the point about WDIAGW? The Great Awk has not suffered some sort of reverse evolution since moving next door. He was always clumsy and flightless. Yes, the hair is a bit greyer and the suits are smarter. But what you get is the same Gordon Brown who swept to power alongside Tony Blair in May 1997: a careerist with the charisma of an extinct species, whose idea of dialogue is to tell us what we think.

The key difference between then and now, and therefore the correct answer to WDIAGW?, rests not inside Brown's Downing Street eyrie, but with those who put him there. It has nothing to do with image; it's all about substance.
No amount of makeovers, re-launches or faked sincerity can change what has occurred. The public has worked out that just about everything Labour had promised on issues that really matter turned out to be untrue.

Not even Dickinson Morris, established at Melton Mowbray in 1851, can match its impressive range of pork pies. For Mr Brown and the entire New Labour project, that is where it has all gone wrong. It is the falsehoods that dumped the party's poll ratings in the gutter. Goebbels' comment on the efficacy of propaganda will be familiar to many: "If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it."

What is less well known is his qualifying observation: "The lie can be maintained only for such time as the state can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie."

Labour's big lies on budgetary prudence, educational standards, support for the Armed Forces, the economic benefits of immigration, a referendum on the European constitution (alias the Lisbon treaty), figures on violent crime, weapons of mass destruction, the abolition of quangos, British jobs for British workers and tackling welfare abuse have been exposed for what they were: cynical manipulation of credulous voters.

The problem for Brown and his troupe of political pygmies is that they have exhausted the supply of veils behind which they once danced. They now stand stark naked before the electorate and it's not a pretty sight. The lies can no longer be maintained. There is no way of shielding people from their loss of democracy, rising costs, falling incomes and the betrayal of those who are paying in blood for Mr Blair's fiction.

The lies go on, naturally, but they have lost traction. Pledges that were once delivered with conviction now seem little more than an insult to the intelligence of decent folk whose patience has been exhausted by mendacity. Mr Brown's pursuit of prudence is a fantasy. In his Mansion House speech two years ago, he promised, "stability through a stable and competitive tax regime, and stability through a light-touch regulatory environment".

Since then, we've had a tax cut that turned out to be an increase, followed by a humiliating climbdown when it became apparent the Government was punishing the working poor. A one-legged stilts walker would seem more stable. Meanwhile, Alistair Darling will borrow at least 40 billion this year, probably 50 billion, far more than Britain spends on defence, to plug a hole in a set of numbers that looks like back-of-a-fag-packet accountancy.

As for regulation, the British Chambers of Commerce has worked out that compliance with red-tape is costing domestic business 66 billion a year, up from 30 billion in 2004 and 10 billion in 2001. Some of this is generated by the European Union, but plenty is home made. It's the light touch of a piledriver. Education Secretary Ed Balls is head boy at the black-is-white school of veracity. If he doesn't appreciate the facts, he changes them. He said recently: "All the evidence I have is that [educational] standards have been maintained." True or false?

The OECD reveals that Britain's secondary schools, after Labour's 10-year attack on excellence, have tumbled down an international league table of reading and mathematics. Education researchers at Durham University conclude that A-levels have been eroded by grade inflation.

A senior academic from Imperial College says that universities have to run catch-up classes for many students with excellent A-levels. And the National Audit Office reports that poor A-level results were the main reason why state school pupils fail to get into a decent university.

Home Office minister Liam Byrne still peddles the twaddle that immigrants have added billions to the size of the economy. Of course they have; that's what happens when there is a rapid increase in population. Per capita, however, we are no better off and may be poorer owing to social dislocation.

And, by the way, where did all these people come from? The Government, you may recall, told us in 2003 that 13,000 migrants would arrive in Britain after eight eastern European countries joined the EU. In the event, more than 600,000 turned up, perhaps as many as one million. A mistake or yet another lie?

Henry Ford said: "You can't build a reputation on what you are going to do." The Brown camp seems not to understand this. When it asks in a bewildered way, "where did it all go wrong?", it fails to recognise that it is real achievements, not false promises, that form the foundations of a lasting reputation. That's why Mr Brown's has crumbled.

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If you consider to go back to school after a long time away, you probably know how expensive it is going to be. If you are established with a home and a family or are in your 30s or 40s, you have plenty of other money worries. The question is: How can you find an adult scholarship?
Do not dispair; there actually is a niche for you out there. There are lots of free money for those of us who are a little older than the regular college student and want an education.
The first thing to do is a little preliminary research. You should find out what kinds of programs you are eligible. There is free money available for people of all walks of life.
Try to avoid financial aid that is just for recent high school graduates. There are quite a few out there that you will be ineligible for because of your age. You can narrow your search by avoiding those with age restrictions. If you can find financial aid specifically for returning students, it will not have any age restriction.
You should apply for anything you might be eligible for. Dont put any limits for yourself. Take advantage of all the free money available for adults and education, its just a matter of finding a program that suits you.
The first place you might try looking is your local library. They will have tons of resources there for scholarships. Librarians are knowledgeable about these resources and will help you find what you need.
Be patient. Stick around and take notes on what you find. Here is the hard part. You have to skim through all the resources available and look for anything that might help you get that money.
If you find something suitable, contact those particular organizations. Request more information and they will probably send you all the materials you need to apply. You may also be able to contact them by a 1-800 number, in which case you can talk to a representative of the organization and get tips for applying. Remember that you are not stealing; they have all this money lying around waiting to be claimed by a successful applicant.
If you have any help filling out forms, ask someones advice. Always fill them out thoroughly. Be sure to write clearly. If you have to write an essay, make sure that it flows well and there arent any grammar or spelling mistakes. You can always ask someone to proofread it if you are unsure.
The important thing is to apply for as many as you can. You never know which one may be able to get you the money you need.
Nic Haffner is a publisher of Scholarship Search and related Info. You can go to www.the-scholarship-portal.com http://www.the-scholarship-portal.com for more.

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In addition to tax relief for debt forgiveness and mortgage insurance payments, the bill includes: - Tax relief for volunteer firefighters and emergency medical technicians - Help to expand housing options for college students with .

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In December, revolving debt — an estimated 95 percent from credit cards — reached a record high of $943.5 billion, according to the Federal Reserve. The annual growth rate of this debt increased steadily in 2007, reaching 9.3 percent in .

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You can vote for John McCain, and see a continuation of Bush economic policies - more tax cuts to the wealthy, more corporate tax breaks, more mountains of debt, and little to no relief for families struggling with the rising costs of .

Once you’ve made the decision to put your debt behind you, you’ll feel a great deal of relief. It’s not necessary to go another month with fears and concerns over your financial predicament. Susan Megge is a consultant in the credit .

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In December, revolving debt — an estimated 95 percent from credit cards — reached a record high of $943.5 billion, according to the Federal Reserve. The annual growth rate of this debt increased steadily in 2007, reaching 9.3 percent in .

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In December, revolving debt — an estimated 95 percent from credit cards — reached a record high of $943.5 billion, according to the Federal Reserve. The annual growth rate of this debt increased steadily in 2007, reaching 9.3 percent in .

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If your faced with mounting debt and are looking for a legal way to correct your problem then this blog will be the answer to all of your stress.
I can relate but let me explain. Not too long ago I was in Debt for about $187,000 for a failed business venture. To make matters worst this debt was spread out among several credit cards. The interest rate and the minimum amount due each month was killing me.
I had to do something or be in fear of losing everything.
I have two young kids and the stress of this situation was wearing me down. I had to do something. I tried loans and I was denied. I tried a home equity loan and I was denied. I quickly came to the realization that I was going to have to save me and my family on my own.

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If your faced with mounting debt and are looking for a legal way to correct your problem then this blog will be the answer to all of your stress.
I can relate but let me explain. Not too long ago I was in Debt for about $187,000 for a failed business venture. To make matters worst this debt was spread out among several credit cards. The interest rate and the minimum amount due each month was killing me.
I had to do something or be in fear of losing everything.
I have two young kids and the stress of this situation was wearing me down. I had to do something. I tried loans and I was denied. I tried a home equity loan and I was denied. I quickly came to the realization that I was going to have to save me and my family on my own.

All information >>> debt reducing toronto

If you need to lose weight, one great way to start melting pounds away is to increase your metabolism. By increasing your metabolism, youll be able to process food faster and therefore will store less fat in the body. In fact, with a better metabolism, youre body will even begin burning away existing fat in order to get the energy it needs to support itself.
How Metabolism Works
Your metabolism can either work for you or against you. The main way we all get energy is from glucose, commonly known as our blood sugar.
When our blood sugar runs low, our metabolism burns the fat in our bodies in order to make more energy. However, when our blood sugar runs high, our metabolism stores fat in our bodies to use later.
So now lets look at how you can get your metabolism to work for you.
Go Ahead and Eat
Many people believe that the key to losing weight is to stop eating. Well, that will actually have a negative effect on your metabolism. Eating less will cause your metabolism to slow down because it will sense that you dont have enough food.
So when you finally eat, your blood sugar will jump through the roof and your metabolism will store the extra glucose as fat.
Instead of starving yourself, eat many smaller, healthy meals that are low in calories and fat. Also, consume plenty of water, fruits, and vegetables.
By eating smaller portions youll not only curb your appetite, but youll also trick your body into thinking that its getting plenty of food. Therefore, your metabolism will kick into a higher gear. Then when it doesnt get the glucose it needs for energy (because youre eating healthy) then it will begin to take that glucose from the stores of fat that are already in your body.
Get Yourself Moving
Exercise is a guaranteed way to increase your metabolism. Always check with your doctor for what is the best exercise regime for you. Most of the time, walking as little as twenty minutes a day, will help increase your metabolism.
Exercise actually helps you lose weight in two ways:
First, exercise builds muscle and muscle burns calories on its own.
Secondly, when you exercise your body is forced to come up with enough energy to support your activity. So, it begins burning fat in order to give the energy you need.
Dont be put off when I say exercise - there is no need to be pounding away furiously on a treadmill for hours a day.
A simple yet effective mini routine is all that is needed to give your metabolism a boost.
Some Final Words about Losing Weight
If you need to lose weight, youre certainly not alone. Millions of people are in the same boat. However, most people dont realize what it takes to first lose the weight and then to keep the weight off.
If you increase your metabolism, youll see that over time, your fat will melt off your body and your weight will gradually drop. The two best ways to increase your metabolism are to eat smaller meals more often and to exercise regularly.
Matt Falconers latest guide helps you shift pounds, boost metabolism and burn fat without spending hours in the gym sweating away on the treadmill.

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When this man said the worlds economy was heading for disaster, he was scorned. Now traders, economists, even Nasa, are clamouring to hear him speak

A noisy cafe in Newport Beach, California. Nassim Nicholas Taleb is eating three successive salads, carefully picking out anything with a high carbohydrate content.

He is telling me how to live. The only way you can say F you to fate is by saying its not going to affect how I live. So if somebody puts you to death, make sure you shave.

After lunch he takes me to Circuit City to buy two Olympus voice recorders, one for me and one for him. The one for him is to record his lectures he charges about $60,000 for speaking engagements, so the $100 recorder is probably worth it. The one for me is because the day before he had drowned my Olympus with earl grey tea and, as he keeps saying, I owe you. It didnt matter because I always use two recorders and, anyway, I had bought a replacement the next morning.

But its important and its not, strictly speaking, a cost to him. Every year he puts a few thousand dollars aside for contingencies parking tickets, tea spills and at the end of the year he gives whats left to charity. The money is gone from day one, so unexpected losses cause no pain. Now I have three Olympus recorders.

He spilt the tea bear with me; this is important while grabbing at his BlackBerry. He was agitated, reading every incoming e-mail, because the Indian consulate in New York had held on to his passport and he needed it to fly to Bermuda. People were being mobilised in New York and, for some reason, France, to get the passport.

The important thing is this: the lost passport and the spilt tea were black swans, bad birds that are always lurking, just out of sight, to catch you unawares and wreck your plans. Sometimes, however, they are good birds. The recorders cost $20 less than the marked price owing to a labelling screw-up at Circuit City. Stuff happens. The world is random, intrinsically unknowable. You will never, he says, be able to control randomness.

To explain: black swans were discovered in Australia. Before that, any reasonable person could assume the all-swans-are-white theory was unassailable. But the sight of just one black swan detonated that theory. Every theory we have about the human world and about the future is vulnerable to the black swan, the unexpected event. We sail in fragile vessels across a raging sea of uncertainty. The world we live in is vastly different from the world we think we live in.

Last May, Taleb published The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. It said, among many other things, that most economists, and almost all bankers, are subhuman and very, very dangerous. They live in a fantasy world in which the future can be controlled by sophisticated mathematical models and elaborate risk-management systems. Bankers and economists scorned and raged at Taleb. He didnt understand, they said. A few months later, the full global implications of the sub-prime-driven credit crunch became clear.

The world banking system still teeters on the edge of meltdown. Taleb had been vindicated. It was my greatest vindication. But to me that wasnt a black swan; it was a white swan. I knew it would happen and I said so. It was a black swan to Ben Bernanke [the chairman of the Federal Reserve]. I wouldnt use him to drive my car. These guys are dangerous. Theyre not qualified in their own field.

In December he lectured bankers at Société Générale, Frances second biggest bank. He told them they were sitting on a mountain of risks a menagerie of black swans. They didnt believe him. Six weeks later the rogue trader and black swan Jérome Kerviel landed them with $7.2 billion of losses.

As a result, Taleb is now the hottest thinker in the world. He has a $4m advance on his next book. He gives about 30 presentations a year to bankers, economists, traders, even to Nasa, the US Fire Administration and the Department of Homeland Security. But he doesnt tell them what to do he doesnt know. He just tells them how the world is. m not a guru. Im just describing a problem and saying, You deal with it.

Getting to know Taleb is a highly immersive experience. Everything matters. Why are you not dressed Californian? he asks at our first meeting. Everything in Newport Beach is very Californian. Im wearing a jacket: its cold. Hes wearing shorts and a polo shirt. Clothes matter; they send signals. He warns against trusting anybody who wears a tie You have to ask, Why is he wearing a tie?

He has rules. In California he hires bikes, not cars. He doesnt usually carry his BlackBerry because he hates distraction and he really hates phone charges. But he does carry an Apple laptop everywhere and constantly uses it to illustrate complex points and seek out references. He says he answers every e-mail. He is sent thousands. He reads for 60 hours a week, but almost never a newspaper, and he never watches television.

If something is going on, I hear about it. I like to talk to people, I socialise. Television is a waste of time. Human contact is what matters.

But the biggest rule of all is his eccentric and punishing diet and exercise programme. Hes been on it for three months and hes lost 20lb. Hes following the thinking of Arthur De Vany, an economist of the acceptable type turned fitness guru. The theory is that we eat and exercise according to our evolved natures.

Early man did not eat carbs, so theyre out. He did not exercise regularly and he did not suffer long-term stress by having an annoying boss. Exercise must be irregular and ferocious Taleb often does four hours in the gym or 360 press-ups and then nothing for 10 days. Jogging is useless; sprinting is good. He likes to knacker himself completely before a long flight. Stress should also be irregular and ferocious early men did not have bad bosses, but they did occasionally run into lions.

Hes always hungry. At both lunches he orders three salads, which he makes me share. Our conversation swings from high philosophy and low economics back to dietary matters like mangoes bad and apples good as long as they are of an old variety. New ones are bred for sugar content. His regime works. He looks great springy and fit. He shows me an old identity card. He is fat and middle-aged in the photo. He looks 10 years younger than that. Look at me! That photo was taken seven years ago. No carbs!

This is risk management facing up to those aspects of randomness about which something can be done. Some years ago he narrowly survived throat cancer. The change in his voice was at first misdiagnosed as damaged vocal cords from his time on the trading floor. It can recur. Also he has a high familial risk of diabetes. He is convinced the diet of civilisation full of carbs and sugar is the problem. The grand doctors who once announced that complex carbohydrates are good for you are, to him, criminals responsible for thousands of deaths.

So, you are wondering, who is this guy? He was born in 1960 in Lebanon, though he casts doubt on both these . The year is close enough he doesnt like to give out his birth date because of identity theft and he doesnt believe in national character. He has, however, a regional identity; he calls himself a Levantine, a member of the indecipherably complex eastern Mediterranean civilisation. My body and soul are Mediterranean.

Both maternal and paternal antecedents are grand, privileged and politically prominent. They are also Christian Greek Orthodox. Startlingly, this great sceptic, this non-guru who believes in nothing, is still a practising Christian. He regards with some contempt the militant atheism movement led by Richard Dawkins.

Scientists dont know what they are talking about when they talk about religion. Religion has nothing to do with belief, and I dont believe it has any negative impact on peoples lives outside of intolerance. Why do I go to church? Its like asking, why did you marry that woman? You make up reasons, but its probably just smell. I love the smell of candles. Its an aesthetic thing.

Take away religion, he says, and people start believing in nationalism, which has killed far more people. Religion is also a good way of handling uncertainty. It lowers blood pressure. Hes convinced that religious people take fewer financial risks.

He was educated at a French school. Three traditions formed him: Greek Orthodox, French Catholic and Arab. They also taught him to disbelieve conventional wisdom. Each tradition had a different history of the crusades, utterly different. This led him to disbelieve historians almost as much as he does bankers.

But, crucially, he also learnt from a very early age that grown-ups have a dodgy grasp of probability. It was in the midst of the Lebanese civil war and, hiding from the guns and bombs, he heard adults repeatedly say the war would soon be over. It lasted 15 years. He became obsessed with probability and, after a degree in management from the Wharton business school at Pennsylvania University, he focused on probability for his PhD at the University of Paris.

For the non-mathematician, probability is an indecipherably complex field. But Taleb makes it easy by proving all the mathematics wrong. Let me introduce you to Brooklyn-born Fat Tony and academically inclined Dr John, two of Talebs creations. You toss a coin 40 times and it comes up heads every time. What is the chance of it coming up heads the 41st time? Dr John gives the answer drummed into the heads of every statistic student: 50/50. Fat Tony shakes his head and says the chances are no more than 1%. You are either full of crap, he says, or a pure sucker to buy that 50% business. The coin gotta be loaded.

The chances of a coin coming up heads 41 times are so small as to be effectively impossible in this universe. It is far, far more likely that somebody is cheating. Fat Tony wins. Dr John is the sucker. And the one thing that drives Taleb more than anything else is the determination not to be a sucker. Dr John is the economist or banker who thinks he can manage risk through mathematics. Fat Tony relies only on what happens in the real world.

In 1985, Taleb discovered how he could play Fat Tony in the markets. France, Germany, Japan, Britain and America signed an agreement to push down the value of the dollar. Taleb was working as an options trader at a French bank. He held options that had cost him almost nothing and that bet on the dollars decline. Suddenly they were worth a fortune. He became obsessed with buying out of the money options. He had realised that when markets rise they tend to rise by small amounts, but when they fall usually hit by a black swan they fall a long way.

The big payoff came on October 19, 1987 Black Monday. It was the biggest market drop in modern history. That had vastly more influence on my thought than any other event in history.

It was a huge black swan nobody had expected it, not even Taleb. But the point was, he was ready. He was sitting on a pile of out-of-the-money eurodollar options. So, while others were considering suicide, Taleb was sitting on profits of $35m to $40m. He had what he calls his f off money, money that would allow him to walk away from any job and support him in his long-term desire to be a writer and philosopher.

He stayed on Wall Street until he got bored and moved to Chicago to become a trader in the pit, the open-outcry market run by the worlds most sceptical people, all Fat Tonys. This he understood.

His first book, Dynamic Hedging: Managing Vanilla and Exotic Options, came out in 1997. He was moving away from being a pure trader, or a quantitative analyst who applies sophisticated maths to investments to being the philosopher he wanted to be. He was using the vast data pool provided by the markets and combining it with a sophisticated grasp of epistemology, the study of how and what we know, to form a synthesis unique in the modern world.

In the midst of this came his purest vindication prior to sub-prime. Long-Term Capital Management was a hedge fund set up in 1994 by, among others, Myron Scholes and Robert C Merton, joint winners of the 1997 Nobel prize in economics. It had the grandest of all possible credentials and used the most sophisticated academic theories of portfolio management. It went bust in 1998 and, because it had positions worth $1.25 trillion outstanding, it almost took the financial system down with it.

Modern portfolio theory had not accounted for the black swan, the Russian financial crisis of that year. Taleb regards the Nobel prize in economics as a disgrace, a laughable endorsement of the worst kind of Dr John economics. Fat Tony should get the Nobel, but hes too smart. People say to me, If economists are so incompetent, why do people listen to them? I say, They dont listen, theyre just teaching birds how to fly.

Taleb created his own hedge fund, Empirica, designed to help other hedge funds hedge their risks by using a refined form of his options wins running small losses in quiet times and winning big in turbulent markets. It did okay but, after a good first year, performed poorly when the market went though a quiet spell. Hes still involved in the markets, but mainly as a hobby like chess.

Finally, with two books Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life, and The Black Swan and a stream of academic papers, he turned himself into one of the giants of modern thought. Theyre still trying to tear him down, of course; last year The American Statistician journal devoted a whole issue to attacking The Black Swan.

But I wouldnt bother. A bad but rather ignorant review in The New York Times resulted in such a savage rebuttal from Taleb on his website, www.fooledbyrandomness.com, that reviewers across the US pulled out in fear of his wrath. He knows his stuff and he keeps being right.

And what he knows does not sound good. The sub-prime crisis is not over and could get worse. Even if the US economy survives this one, it will remain a mountain of risk and delusion. America is the greatest financial risk you can think of.

Its primary problem is that both banks and government are staffed by academic economists running their deluded models. Britain and Europe have better prospects because our economists tend to be more pragmatic, adapting to conditions rather than following models. But still we are dependent on American folly.

The central point is that we have created a world we dont understand. Theres a place he calls Mediocristan. This was where early humans lived. Most events happened within a narrow range of probabilities within the bell-curve distribution still taught to statistics students. But we dont live there any more. We live in Extremistan, where black swans proliferate, winners tend to take all and the rest get nothing theres Bill Gates, Steve Jobs and a lot of software writers living in a garage, theres Domingo and a thousand opera singers working in Starbucks. Our systems are complex but over-efficient. They have no redundancy, so a black swan strikes everybody at once. The banking system is the worst of all.

Complex systems dont allow for slack and everybody protects that system. The banking system doesnt have that slack. In a normal ecology, banks go bankrupt every day. But in a complex system there is a tendency to cluster around powerful units. Every bank becomes the same bank so they can all go bust together.

He points out, chillingly, that banks make money from two sources. They take interest on our current accounts and charge us for services. This is easy, safe money. But they also take risks, big risks, with the whole panoply of loans, mortgages, derivatives and any other weird scam they can dream up. Banks have never made a penny out of this, not a penny. They do well for a while and then lose it all in a big crash.

On top of that, Taleb has shown that increased economic concentration has raised our vulnerability to natural disasters. The Kobe earthquake of 1995 cost a lot more than the Tokyo earthquake of 1923. And there are countless other ways in which we have built a world ruled by black swans some good but mostly bad. So what do we do as individuals and the world? In the case of the world, Taleb doesnt know. He doesnt make predictions, he insults people paid to do so by telling them to get another job. All forecasts about the oil price, for example, are always wrong, though people keep doing it. But he knows how the world will end.

Governments and policy makers dont understand the world in which we live, so if somebody is going to destroy the world, it is the Bank of England saving Northern Rock. The biggest danger to human society comes from civil servants in an environment like this. In their attempt to control the ecology, they dont understand that the link between action and consequences can be more vicious. Civil servants say they need to make forecasts, but its totally irresponsible to make people rely on you without telling them youre incompetent.

Bear Stearns the US Northern Rock was another vindication for Taleb. Hes always said that whatever deal you do, you always end up dealing with J P Morgan. It was JPM that picked up Bear at a bargain-basement price. Banks should be more like New York restaurants. They come and go but the restaurant business as a whole survives and thrives and the food gets better. Banks fail but bankers still get millions in bonuses for applying their useless models.

Restaurants tinker, they work by trial and error and watch real results in the real world. Taleb believes in tinkering it was to be the title of his next book. Trial and error will save us from ourselves because they capture benign black swans. Look at the three big inventions of our time: lasers, computers and the internet. They were all produced by tinkering and none of them ended up doing what their inventors intended them to do. All were black swans. The big hope for the world is that, as we tinker, we have a capacity for choosing the best outcomes.

We have the ability to identify our mistakes eventually better than average; thats what saves us. We choose the iPod over the Walkman. Medicine improved exponentially when the tinkering barber surgeons took over from the high theorists. They just went with what worked, irrespective of why it worked. Our sense of the good tinker is not infallible, but it might be just enough to turn away from the apocalypse that now threatens Extremistan.

He also wants to see diplomats dying of cirrhosis of the liver. It means theyre talking and drinking and not going to war. Parties are among the great good things in Talebs world.

And you and me? Well, the good investment strategy is to put 90% of your money in the safest possible government securities and the remaining 10% in a large number of high-risk ventures. This insulates you from bad black swans and exposes you to the possibility of good ones. Your smallest investment could go explode and make you rich. High-tech companies are the best. The downside risk is low if you get in at the start and the upside very high. Banks are the worst all the risk is downside. Dont be tempted to play the stock market If people knew the risks theyd never invest.s much more to Talebs view of the world than that. He is reluctant to talk about matters of human nature, ethics or any of the traditional concerns of philosophy because he says he hasnt read enough. But, when pressed, he comes alive.

You have to worry about things you can do something about. I worry about people not being there and I want to make them aware. We should be mistrustful of knowledge. It is bad for us. Give a bookie 10 pieces of information about a race and hell pick his horses. Give him 50 and his picks will be no better, but he will, fatally, be more confident.

We should be ecologically conservative global warming may or may not be happening but why pollute the planet? and probablistically conservative. The latter, however, has its limits. Nobody, not even Taleb, can live the sceptical life all the time s an art, its hard work. So he doesnt worry about crossing the road and doesnt lock his front door I cant start getting paranoid about that stuff. His wife locks it, however.

He believes in aristocratic though not, he insists, elitist values: elegance of manner and mind, grace under pressure, which is why you must shave before being executed. He believes in the Mediterranean way of talking and listening. One piece of advice he gives everybody is: go to lots of parties and listen, you might learn something by exposing yourself to black swans.

I ask him what he thinks are the primary human virtues, and eventually he comes up with magnanimity punish your enemies but dont bear grudges; compassion fairness always trumps efficiency; courage very few people have this; and tenacity tinker until it works for you.

s be human the way we are human. Homo sum I am a man. Dont accept any Olympian view of man and you will do better in society.

Above all, accept randomness. Accept that the world is opaque, majestically unknown and unknowable. From its depths emerge the black swans that can destroy us or make us free. Right now theyre killing us, so remember to shave. But we can tinker our way out of it. Its what we do best. Listen to Taleb, an ancient figure, one of the great Mediterranean minds, when he says: You find peace by coming to terms with what you dont know. Oh, and watch those carbs.

Taleb's top life tips:

1 Scepticism is effortful and costly. It is better to be sceptical about matters of large consequences, and be imperfect, foolish and human in the small and the aesthetic.

2 Go to parties. You cant even start to know what you may find on the envelope of serendipity. If you suffer from agoraphobia, send colleagues.

3 Its not a good idea to take a forecast from someone wearing a tie. If possible, tease people who take themselves and their knowledge too seriously.

4 Wear your best for your execution and stand dignified. Your last recourse against randomness is how you act if you cant control outcomes, you can control the elegance of your behaviour. You will always have the last word.

5 Dont disturb complicated systems that have been around for a very long time. We dont understand their logic. Dont pollute the planet. Leave it the way we found it, regardless of scientific .

6 Learn to fail with pride and do so fast and cleanly. Maximise trial and error by mastering the error part.

7 Avoid losers. If you hear someone use the words , , too difficult too often, drop him or her from your social network. Never take for an answer (conversely, take most as most probably).

8 Dont read newspapers for the news (just for the gossip and, of course, profiles of authors). The best filter to know if the news matters is if you hear it in cafes, restaurants... or (again) parties.

9 Hard work will get you a professorship or a BMW. You need both work and luck for a Booker, a Nobel or a private jet.

10 Answer e-mails from junior people before more senior ones. Junior people have further to go and tend to remember who slighted them.

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What has happened to British phlegm? Instead of greeting news of falling house prices and tightening lending with aplomb, people shriek that the sky is falling. Steven Crawshaw, chairman of the Council of Mortgage Lenders, warns that it is a real possibility ... that net lending in 2008 could reach only half last years level unless additional funds become available. Smaller mortgage lenders, dependent on their ability to sell mortage-backed securities, could even be forced out of the market. In sum, the time has come for a bail-out.

I have three answers to this cacophony of special pleading: first, anybody who thinks it is a duty of the state to help keep housing expensive is crazy; second, policymakers should respond only to clear market failures; and, third, with a floating exchange rate and an independent central bank, the UK can weather the storm if it keeps its head.

It is high time the British realised a people cannot become rich by selling ever more expensive houses to one another. According to the International Monetary Funds latest World Economic Outlook UK house prices are more overvalued, relative to economic fundamentals, than those of almost any other high-income country. At long last, investors in mortgage-backed securities, all too aware of what has happened in the US, have realised the dangers in the UK.

They must understand that it becomes extraordinarily difficult to know what such securities are worth as soon as house prices start to fall. They must also be aware that UK house prices have risen by a good 150 per cent since 1996, in real terms. Indeed, It would take a 25 per cent fall in real prices to put them on to the 1971-2007 trend line, last hit in January 2002. Such a decline is conceivable. Prices might overshoot downwards, but they are nowhere near that position now.

Peter Spencer, chief economist of the Ernst Young Item club, argues that the government should step in, by borrowing to fund the mortgage market. With great respect, I think this notion is mad. It is wrong for the government to fund people to purchase houses at what may well prove the beginning of a long slide in prices. It is tantamount to the financial debauching of minors. As important, if you believe, as I do, that house prices probably must fall, it is better for this adjustment to be swift than be dragged out over many years.

So should the government do nothing at all? No. Since mid-March, spreads between rates on interbank and official three-month and six-month lending have been some 20 to 25 basis points higher in the UK than in the US or eurozone. This, it is argued, reflects the illiquidity of mortgage-backed securities. Lenders, argues Mr Crawshaw, hoard cash because they are not sure whether they will be able to borrow in future.

Whatever the source of the problem, a case exists for further action by the Bank of England in its role as lender of last resort. At present, it is working, in conjunction with the Treasury, on a scheme to swap high-grade mortgage-backed securities for government debt for terms of one to three years, after a sensible . But credit risk would still remain with the banks.

This facility would be available at all times, but would be limited to securities created up to the end of last year. All that is now needed is for the Treasury to agree to create the needed gilts. The aim of this would be to remove liquidity constraints, not provide a bail-out or reopen the market in mortage-backed securities. The latter may well be gone forever, as can happen to markets in lemons.

In all, this looks sensible. If it succeeds, net mortgage lending may remain lower than before. Yet even if it were to halve, as some fear, the nominal stock of outstanding mortgage debt would grow by a bit over 4 per cent this year, or much the same rate as nominal gross domestic product. The idea that the stock should grow faster than GDP forever is nonsense.
After house prices peak, I would expect the ratio to fall, not just cease rising. Those arguing for still higher growth in net mortgage lending are arguing that the government must subsidise even more house-price inflation and the lenders who have fuelled it. This is demented.

Yet, some will protest, this is a recipe for a recession. This is false. Even the IMF argues that the economy will continue to grow this year and next, at about 1.6 per cent. After 62 quarters of sustained growth, would that be a tragedy? Moreover, the real reason for slower growth is the need to hit the inflation target. The country needs lower inflation, whereupon the Bank will have room to cut interest rates.

The adjustment of the economy towards exports and away from domestic spending is now, at last, under way. Fortunately, the exchange rate is taking much of the strain. In eight months, competitiveness has improved by 16 per cent against the UKs eurozone partners, something Spain or Italy will only achieve painfully, after years of disinflation.

A combination of close attention to the liquidity logjam and flexible monetary policy is all that is needed. It is not the governments job to reflate house-price bubbles. It would have been a good idea if it had done more to prevent them, instead.

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